PE Beat: Nobody Blinks

Nobody Blinks

Q2 deal value fell 38% from Q1. The average US buyout still clears at 12.5 times EBITDA, level with the 2021 peak. Volume collapsed and prices did not move. That is 2026 in two numbers.

PitchBook's Steven Buibish, who directs its US private equity research, walked through the first-half data and led with the composition problem: headline PE numbers have been a mega-deal proxy for years. "84% of the run-up from trough in 2024 to the peak in 2025 that we see here was driven by mega deal." The sub-$2.5 billion market has been flat to stable for two years. So the industry looked healthier than it was, and now looks sicker than it is.

The stalemate is the story. Only A-quality assets clear, because GPs will not mark down the rest and LPs will not commit again until distributions show up. Mega deals transact near 16 times against roughly 10.5 a decade ago, small deals at 8 to 9, and the extra turns are equity, not debt. The host's summary is cleanest: "But people are paying historically high prices with historically low leverage."

This column has circled that stalemate for three weeks, from the end of asset-gathering to allocators large enough to demand data. The supply side arrived this week. Fundraising totals hold level with 2025 while fund counts fall, DPI drops off a cliff from 2018 vintages on, and first-time funds have nearly disappeared: "it's almost impossible to start a new fund." The capital is not shrinking, it is consolidating, and the evergreen wrappers Buibish sees as the next growth engine funnel to the same managers.

Advent's John Maldonado described underwriting once multiple expansion is finished, opening on crowding: "Today, there are nearly as many private equity funds in the U.S. as there are McDonald's." Advent's answer is a hard floor of three times money and a refusal of what he calls the arithmetic buyout, "where you lever it up, if it can just grow at this percentage and you assume the same entry and exit multiple, well, that just manifests into a two times money deal." Three quarters of the current fund is primary, bought from corporates and founders, not sponsors.

Zach Jones grew a gastroenterology practice near Washington from three surgery centers to ten with no acquisitions, on the theory that in provider-based healthcare the roll-up is the crowded trade. To fund the build he left bank debt for a private credit fund that underwrites to enterprise value created rather than coverage ratios, because "a lot of private credit funds have understood that their security is ultimately tied to the size of the business." When multiple arbitrage is jammed, the money looks for whoever is growing the denominator.

Sources: Steven Buibish (PitchBook), Private Equity Funcast, "Another False Start: PitchBook's H1 2026 Private Equity Data (w/ Steven Buibish)," Aug 12, 2026. John Maldonado (Advent International), Dry Powder, "Pond Skipping w/ Advent International's John Maldonado," Aug 11, 2026. Zach Jones (Gastro Centers of America), Think Like an Owner, "Right to Win EP.6: Building an Edge in Multi-Site Healthcare with Zach Jones," Aug 11, 2026.